A new online poll conducted by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil shows that Hillary Clinton has a 53-point lead over Donald Trump with Latino voters, despite indications that Trump’s support has increased slightly.
The poll, which ran from May 10-16, asked online Latinos the following question: If the elections were held today, for whom would you vote? 68.2% of the respondents selected Clinton, with 15.1% choosing Trump and 16.7% picking Other.
However, the Trump support increased when the data is compared by age. For example, for this current poll, Trump’s support in the 18-24 group was at 6.6%, but with Latinos 65 and over, Trump was at 32.3%.
According to Pew Research, it is estimated that 27.3 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in 2016 (11.9% of the nation’s eligible voters). Pew also reported that 44% of those voters are millennials.
Tracking Since April
FIU/Adsmovil has been tracking the presidential preference question since the week of April 11-15, when it shared the following results: Clinton 62.3%, Trump 11.8%, Other 25.9. Since that first April poll, Clinton has seen a 5.9 point increase in support, Trump’s support has jumped 3.3 points, while Other has dropped 9.2 points.
The latest poll sample was 582 respondents who answered questions in Spanish or English. A previous poll (conducted in Spanish only) had a sample of 8,255 respondents, and according to FIU Professor Eduardo A. Gamarra, one of the poll’s co-authors, his team has now surveyed over 200,000 Latinos in this poll.
“We are increasingly confident of the data, given its consistency week after week,” Gamarra told Latino USA. “We now have polled over 200,00 Latinos in a seven-week period and the results are consistent daily and weekly.”
(For an explanation of how Gamarra and his team organized the poll and determined the data, click here.)
“Clear Advantage” for Clinton
Gamarra also said that the weekly poll results show that Clinton still has a “clear advantage” over Trump with Latinos.
“Mrs. Clinton has a clear advantage over Mr. Trump and over the last couple of weeks, it has been interesting to observe the movement in the other category as undecided Latinos move toward Trump or Clinton,” Gamarra added.
This new FIU/Adsmovil poll was released just days after an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll showed Trump with 28% of Latino support in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Clinton. Gamarra was asked why the FIU/Adsmovil poll differed from the NBC News/Survey Monkey one.
“We do not comment on other people’s surveys,” Gamarra said. “I am not familiar with their sample or how exactly the data was gathered. If this poll is correct, then Trump would be polling higher than Mitt Romney’s final count in 2012. It certainly contradicts the results of our weekly polls that have shown enormous consistency week in and week out.”
The latest FIU/Adsmovil also asked respondents what issue is most important to them. Immigration came in at 26%, with the economy getting 20.3%.
Gamarra added that his team will continue to track this election season through the lens of Latino voters across the country.
“FIU’s agreement with Adsmovil contemplates conducting this weekly tracking for the duration of the campaign,” Gamarra said. “At the same time, we are also conducting a variety of qualitative methods with Latino communities in Florida and in the rest of the country to deepen our understanding of how these communities view the electoral process and to gauge how they sense which candidates might best respond to their needs.”
The complete results of the latest FIU/Adsmovil poll are below.