UPDATE, September 8, 2016: This week’s NLV poll, which happened after Trump’s Phoenix speech and “Tacos on Every Corner” has Trump under 11% now.
Donald Trump’s national support with Latino voters has reached an all-time low of 11.2%, according to the latest New Latino Voice (NLV) tracking poll conducted last week by Florida International University and Hispanic mobile advertising company Adsmovil. The August 23–August 30 online poll showed the Republican candidate in third place, behind Hillary Clinton’s 74.5% and 14.3% for Other.
The NLV tracking poll has been in place since April. When Bernie Sanders was still in the Democratic race, the Other category was as high as 26%. Last week’s poll, conducted until the day before Trump visited Mexico and gave an immigration speech in Phoenix, is the first time since May that Other has outperformed Trump. Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead over both choices, but after peaking at 81% in early July, the Democratic candidate has been between 77% and 75%.
“The most noteworthy development with Latinos these past two weeks has been that the ‘Other’ category has surpassed the vote for Donald Trump,” Florida International University professor Eduardo Gamarra told Latino USA. “The explanation may lie mainly in those Republican voters who do not like Mr. Trump and who will not vote for Mrs. Clinton.”
With every release of the NLV tracking poll, Gamarra and his team also break down results by gender and demographics. According to this week’s results, Trump and Other fared better with women, while support for Clinton dropped.
In addition, support for Other tended to skew older, according to this week’s NLV poll. For example, in the 65+ category, 31.5% chose Other, while 55.6% chose Clinton and 13% chose Trump.
The latest NLV results were consistent with a recent America’s Voice/Latino Decisions poll conducted from August 19-August 30, which showed Clinton with a 70-19 lead over Trump. (Note: The co-founders of Latino Decisions work with the Clinton campaign, but do not participate in these types of presidential polls.)
The latest NLV poll sampled 4,071 online Latinos across the nation. (For an explanation of the tracking poll’s methodology, click here.) It also included a separate question for a sample size of 3,700 Latino voters in Florida. In the Florida-specific question, Clinton was at 73%, Trump earned 13.7% and Other got 13.3%.
For the first time since the tracking poll’s existence, NLV sampled 1,700 Latino voters in Miami-Dade county. The numbers below show Clinton at 73.9%, Trump at 18.3% and Other at 7.8%.
In the Miami-Dade question, Trump saw close to 20% support with Latinos between 25–44 and 27.3% with Latinos 65 and over.
You can read the entire poll results below: