Hillary Clinton has a 62-point lead over Donald Trump with Latino voters, according to the final results of an eight-week tracking poll from the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund and Noticias Telemundo.
The latest pre-Election Day numbers, released Monday morning and conducted by polling firm Latino Decisions, showed Clinton with 76% of Latino support and Trump with 14%.
The 76% number for Clinton was the Democratic candidate’s best performance of the eight-week tracking poll. Since the first poll results were published on September 19, Clinton’s support has increased by five points. Trump, who started with 18% on September 19, has seen his support decrease by four points.
In 2012, Barack Obama won the Latino vote over Mitt Romney by 44 points. If Clinton’s 76% support and 62-point margin hold on Election Day, she would not only have won the largest percentage of Latino voters in presidential elections since 1980, but her advantage over Trump would be historic as well. In 1996, President Bill Clinton captured 72% of the Latino vote while Bob Dole won 21%, resulting in a 51-point margin. As for Trump, the Republican candidate runs the risk of winning the least amount of Latino support in 36 years.
Over the weekend, the national political media reported that the Latino electorate could be the key to a Clinton victory, as early voting numbers are showing historic surges in states like Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Findings about early voting by Latinos from the NALEO/Noticias Telemundo poll would confirm that the surge is indeed a reality. According to this week’s poll, 50% of respondents said that already voted early or will vote before Election Day. Last week, Latino Decisions predicted that “between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016.” If so, it would be the highest number of Latinos to ever vote in an election cycle.
As for the importance of the 2016 election, 76% of poll respondents said it was more important than 2012, while 55% said they were more enthusiastic about voting in 2016 than they were about 2012.
This week’s poll interviewed 250 registered Latino voters and combined them with 250 responses from the previous week’s poll. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%. Here are the complete toplines:
Editor’s note: Latino Decisions’ co-founders conduct separate polling for the Clinton campaign. They are not associated with this NALEO/Noticias Telemundo tracking poll.